Does the lawn sign divide matter?

Biden leads in polls; Trump leads the lawns — does it mean anything?

Back in the Fall of 2016, when I was working in the White House, it was safe to say that (as the proverb goes) the curtains were being prematurely measured. Everyone had long and foolishly assumed that Clinton was going to win; the question was how to manage the handoff.

Occasionally while making plans, someone would pause say “but, if the unthinkable happens…” the way you’d refer to the possibility of a fire or a hurricane.

During that period I remember chatting with a Florida cousin, who was then a teenager. To my great chagrin and surprise she informed me that Trump was going to win the election. “Silly girl,” I thought to myself, “have you seen the polls?” I asked why she thought that. She said, “His signs are everywhere! I’ve hardly seen a Clinton sign.”

But the polls, scientific and rigorous, said otherwise! Everyone knew the election was a lock for Clinton. Counting lawn signs was just for amateurs. Right?

So, here we are in 2020, and Joe Biden is, like Clinton before him, leading every poll. Yet if you drove around much of the United States, you wouldn’t know it — at least, not if you were counting signs. And especially not if you were going by vehicle parades and…